The fight for an uncertain future

Nelson Mail editorial, March 22, 2011
The fog of war, in all its disorienting murk, has settled heavily across Libya. In a turn of events unthinkable mere weeks ago - demonstrating the speed at which unrest and rebellion has careened so chaotically across the Arab world - a Western- dominated military coalition is bombarding the forces of the Libyan dictator Gaddafi. Yet if the early running has predictably gone the coalition's way, there is no telling where this assault will lead.
The case for intervention is sound. Gaddafi had all but vowed genocide against those who had sought to overthrow him. The evidence suggests slaughter of the rebels and anyone else the Gaddafi regime deemed an enemy was imminent. The global community risked a humanitarian outrage if it had tried to pretend this was Libya's business alone, not to mention the prospect of a wave of panicking refugees trying to cross the Mediterranean into Europe to flee Gaddafi's revitalised tyranny. So, the outside world had to act, and the crisis had reached a point where there few credible options other than swift and sharp military intervention.
The reports of the casualties inflicted on the Libyan military carry disconcerting reminders of the West's early adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan. Hopefully, given the appalling mess those experiences ultimately led to, it is not a comparison which holds up too far; and yet their blunt lesson, that massive superiority in firepower is in itself no guarantee of the ideal outcome will be gnawing at every mind in the attacking alliance.
Already, the resolve which helped shepherd the United Nations resolutions justifying the attacks is shaking. Crucial Arab support is predictably flimsy. The ugly reality of airstrikes on Gaddafi's forces has no doubt unnerved other Arab leaders, faced with extraordinary volatility in their own countries. The Arabs are far from alone in their anxiety. As soon as there are verified reports of civilians falling victim to coalition attacks, the condemnation from those powers who have shied away from action will intensify.
Obviously, the best outcome would be that Gaddafi rapidly departs the scene. His continued hold on any kind of power is now unthinkable; but that might still be a prospect the world has to confront. For decades he was recognised as one of the world's great menaces, the head of a rogue state which sheltered the worst terrorist groups and had designs on weapons of mass destruction. His latest behaviour proves that his supposed rehabilitation was only a myth. So long as he maintains any kind of grip on any part of his country, he can be expected to seek to unleash evil against his new-found legion of enemies, especially in the West.
If he is removed, there are those who worry about what shape or form a post-Gaddafi Libya might take. Yet the mounting lessons of the Arab uprisings are that such questions are spinning out of the control of Western influence. Air and missile strikes in Libya are a grim but necessary measure to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe and to try to force a tyrant from office. Beyond that they offer no certainty. Throughout the Middle East, there are no longer any guarantees that anyone will get what they hope for.